There is no question that passing and rushing statistics are the predominant tool of choice for handicappers looking to assess team strength and point spread accuracy for any given game. My analysis is no different in some respects: Many of my situations are based on fundamental ratings like ROF and PDE that use yards per play stats to reveal situations that have been profitable in front of the line.

What is lost in all the attention directed at how well teams run and pass the ball; however, it is the fact that there are other equally important aspects of team play that can be just as predictive in nature as some of the more commonly used measures of team ability.

One of those areas that often goes unnoticed by handicappers involves statistics related to team penalties and as we will explore here, certain Type Penalties can be a particularly powerful debuff tool in the right situations.

I’ve always found penalties to be an intriguing aspect of the NFL game and their effect is undeniable – who hasn’t felt the pain of a mistimed penalty kick that suddenly breathes new life into a series that seemed to have ended moments before with a spread? victory all aim down. Untimely penalties can cost a team a game in the blink of an eye and turn a margin winner into a loser faster than TO can autograph a ball (in the end zone, of course).

In fact I’ve traced the worth footage statistics since the 1994 season and penalty yardage differential (an average per game taking called penalties opponents minus the penalties called to the team in question) is the basis of another successful trend that is 78-14 ATS in the last 13 seasons.

While it’s nice to know how many penalty yards a team averages per game, or how many they had in a previous game, this type of analysis tells us nothing about what particular TYPES of penalties a team is being evaluated on and the actual way in which the team is being evaluated. The final penalty yardage total listed on the scorecard was arrived at.

Is the team in question taking a lot of offensive holding calls due to a lack of line size? Or are they being hit with a slew of pass interference calls due to a second line CB forced to work due to injury? By separating penalties into more detailed categories and looking at them based on number of calls, rather than yardage, we can begin to have better answers to questions like the ones posed above.

Ultimately, most penalties called in the modern NFL game can be assigned to one of the following 6 categories:

1) False Start Penalties (FSP)
2) Penalties for Offensive Holding (OHP)
3) Playbook Enforcement Penalties (PBEP)
4) Defensive Line Penalties (DLP)
5) Defensive Secondary Penalties (DSP)
6) Dumb Penalties (DMP)

The category this article focuses on is the third one on the list: Playbook Execution Penalties. This group includes any violations related to the interruption of game calls. Examples of these include: illegal formations, turns, movement, snapshots, participation, substitutions, and procedures; Game delay (in certain cases); Illegal forward passes; 12 men in the field; Ineligible recipients and so on. For a full breakdown of the other categories, see page 12 of the 2007 NFL Play Sheets Guide.

The league average for PBEP is typically around 0.7 calls per game (on each team). Arizona was worst in the league in 2006 for PBEP against averaging 1.5 per game while Pittsburgh and Denver were 1-2 in the league with PBEP averaging against 0.2 and 0.4 per game respectively.

As a stand-alone statistic, PBEP is a good yardstick for measuring the quality of a team’s coaching staff and also provides an indication of whether players are being used in schemes in which they feel comfortable and have the necessary skills to succeed. It’s no coincidence that teams like the Steelers and Patriots have a low PBEPA average year after year, while others, like the Cardinals, rank near the bottom.

When it comes to handicap vs point difference, PBEPA becomes a useful tool when equipment with extremely high PBEPA are examined

Since the 2002 season, teams with a PBEPA average more than double the league average of 0.7 (> +1.5 to be exact) are lousy 168-213 (44.1%) ATS versus number. In the last 5 seasons alone, placing bets based solely on this simple strategy would have netted you $2,820 with a $110 bet to win back $100 on each game.

There is actually a second ‘Building Block’ or main condition that I like to use for this situation and that is: to include only games where the opponent has a higher Defensive Secondary Penalty Against Average (DSPA). When this condition is added, the record of the situation is reduced to 55-110 (33.3%) ATS and earnings in the last 5 years jump to $4,950.

DSP penalties involve flags thrown primarily at cornerbacks and safeties, usually for defensive pass interference and illegal contact. The complex relationship between PBE and DS penalties is something that requires further study on my part, but suffice it to say that, for whatever reasons, they are firmly intertwined and the drastic improvement this situation gets when only teams with a highest average DSPA are proof of their correlation is included.

Rounding out this situation are two secondary conditions. The first specifies that games with an Over/Under of less than 38 will not be included and the second eliminates teams coming off their bye week (teams having PBEPA issues perform better compared to differential when gives them an extra week of practice).

Here are all the details.

(Grades: ASMR stands for Average Margin Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the negative line, which is weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. % in weigh is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and RPS is the average spread of the teams in this situation. For more details, see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Play Sheets Guide.)

Situational Trend Summary #22 (last updated: January 15, 2008)

Primary conditions (building blocks)

1) Playbook Execution Penalty Against (PBEPA) Average > +1.5 per game.
2) The opponent has a higher Defensive Secondary Penalty Average (DSPA).

Secondary conditions (tensors)
1) The team is not coming off a bye week.
2) Exclude more/less (OR) from situation statistics
ASMR: +0.2
% housing: 56.3
Dog%: 52.4
TDIS%: 87.5
% by weight: 38.8
SP: +0.12
Best Teams: ARI(13); KEY(10); PHI(9); MAR(9)

status record
In general (since 2001): 21-82 TTY
2007 season: 2-5 ATS
2006 season: 0-7 ATS
2005 season: 5-20 ATS
2004 season: 10-30 ATS

Last 3 results. Select between parentheses.
2007 WK15–MIA 22 BAL 16 (BAL-3.5) L
2007 WK13–NYJ 40 MIA 13 (NYJ+1) W
2007 WK11–PHI 17 MIA 7 (PHI -9.5) W.